Thoughts from the Games and Arkie Look

MAFGA at Rose Bowl

We are now 3 games through what I still feel is Kevin Sumlin’s Farewell Tour.  After the second half of Saturday I’m not entirely sure it’s his Farewell Tour like I was coming into the season and especially after the UCLA and Nicholls St games.  If I were a betting man I’d still wager on a 7-5 season but what I saw in the second half of the ULaLa game made me pause my certainty.  Couple what happened in the second half and watching the Saturday games of the SEC teams left on our schedule this could be a 10 win team.  I put that at about 5% but if that team that showed up in the second half of the ULaLa game continues to show up and even better progresses they can possibly beat every team left on the schedule not named Alabama.  I truly believe that.  Will it happen?  I truly doubt that.

Based on Sumlin’s tenure there is no way this team consistently puts together 16 halves of football against the remaining teams not named Alabama.  We have a sample set of six halves so far and there’s been 2 really good halves and 4 absolute stinkers.  I don’t think the light went off for the rest of the season but if Sumlin wants to keep his job the light is dim and flickering.  I don’t think Sumlin has the ability to figure out the power source and wiring to light it up and keep it lit for 14 halves of football to save is job.  14 halves because he needs at least 9 wins to guarantee his job for next season so he needs 7 more wins.  He’s going to have some stinkers along the way so I don’t see how he wins 7 more but we’ll see.

This is still the guy that had an AMAZING first half against UCLA and then a COLOSSAL collapse in the second half followed by a full game nail biter against Nicholls State.  He then followed up that performance by trailing ULaLa 21-14 at half before absolutely blowing the doors off ULaLa in the second half to win walking away.  We’ll find out this weekend how much this team has really progressed and if Sumlin has any chance of keeping his job.

Let’s take a look at the various components of the units for where we are:


Had the second half of ULaLa not happened I would have really thought this team had a best case scenario of going 6-6 right now.  What I saw in the first half of the ULaLa game and then especially in the second half gives me some real pause as to what’s going on.  Kellen Mond looked really solid at the QB position.  Even in the first half he looked really poised in the pocket and made some really solid throws.  Especially the deep ball to Ratley in the first half.  That was a beautiful ball.  Mond threw for over 300 yards which even against ULaLa is no small feat.  Prior to that game Mond looked like absolute garbage.  He really did.  He couldn’t throw a ball to save his life.  Maybe he just calmed down.  That ULaLa game could be Mond’s coming out party like Johnny Football in the 2012 SMU game or it could be like Kenny Trill against Arkansas in 2014 where it never got any better than that.  I think it’ll be somewhere in between because Mond is a true freshman and showed solid progression but it wasn’t a breakout performance like Johnny against SMU.  I think the rest of the way Mond’s going to have some solid games and then some stinkers which is why I still contend this is a 7-5 team.  Either way I think this is no doubt Mond’s team going forward unless he just really struggles.  If he struggles we’re hosed because I do think Mond has highest ceiling of any QB on the roster including a healthy Starkel.

For the rest of the offense the running backs have been the saving grace of this team.  They demolished UCLA in the first half and then didn’t get a real opportunity against UCLA in the second half.  They rushed for over 300 yards against UCLA despite barely seeing the ball in the second half which is just insane.  It really is.  They rushed for almost 200 yards against Nicholls St and the efforts of Kendall Bussey is likely the reason we won that game.  They rushed for over 200 yards against ULaLa which allowed Mond to have some success passing as ULaLa was doing what they could to shut down the run.  The running backs are no doubt the strength of this team as Bussey and Kibodi have stepped up with Williams and Ford banged up.  We’ve got some real talent at running back.

I have no clue what’s going on with the offensive line.  There’s so much shuffling I can’t keep up.  They flat out dominated in the first half of the UCLA game but then fell off big time.  I don’t know if it was because of the shuffling or defenses figured out how to attack each lineman.  It seems like the shuffling is over with McCoy back at center even though his snap issues continue.  Maybe they keep shuffling but headed into SEC play they better set what they think is their best 5 guys and let them work as a unit.  The strength of an offensive line is trusting the guy next to you to make the same reads as you so there’s no major whiffs.  That only happens with repeated work together to establish familiarity.  Jim Turner of all people should know this.

At receiver this crew other than Christian Kirk looked like warmed over death before ULaLa.  They couldn’t get separation and if a ball came near them or even hit their hands they couldn’t catch it.  However, against ULaLa these guys started catching balls.  I think they’re going to be extremely inconsistent in SEC play but it was good to see them actually catching balls against a team even if it was a non Power 5 conference team.  Seems like there’s a lot of young talent but we’ll find out how much as we enter SEC play.

I still don’t trust Mazzone against great defensive coordinators which is part of why I’m leaving my prediction at 7-5 and for now.  There’s going to be stretches during games where our offense does nothing.  It’s just the way it is with Mazzone.  However, I did see some promise in the second half against ULaLa to make me think we’ll split our SEC games at 4-4 as there will be enough offensive firepower to win half of those SEC games but it’ll be inconsistent to not win enough to save Sumlin’s job.


Defensively this squad has been the exact opposite of the offensive having played 4 great halves of football and 2 stinkers.  I remember sitting in the first half of the UCLA game thinking John Chavis was a damn genius.  I mean we were taking it to UCLA and Josh Rosen with pressure all over the place.  Then the second half happened which I don’t need to re-hash.  Despite the fact it was Nicholls St they actually played pretty damn good football most of the game but just had some brain farts in the passing game.  Same thing in the first half of the ULaLa game but played lights out in the second half against ULaLa shutting them out.

What I see is a John Chavis defense that is going to focus on shutting down the run and bring pressure because that’s what he likes to do and I’m okay with that for the most part.  The problem is we’re going to give up a big play here and there as we miss a coverage assignment or one of our guys just gets beat one on one.  It’s a defensive scheme that rather than give up yardage during the entire game the defense is going to look to shut down an offense knowing they could have some busted plays for big yards and likely touchdowns.  In this day and age offenses are going to get yards and scores so you just hope a defense steps up when it has to.  They didn’t do that against UCLA obviously but did do it against ULaLa in the second half.  This also leads me to believe the defense will have some stinker games and some solid games.  Kevin Sumlin just better hope they’re lined up with his offense having good games.

The defensive line has been tremendous.  We knew the defensive tackles were going to be good but the defensive ends have been way more impressive than I could have ever imagined.  They did a tremendous job against Rosen in the first half and then have shut down the run against Nicholls St and ULaLa which honestly was not the strength of Hall and Garrett last season as they tried to tee off on quarterbacks.  It seems these defensive ends are playing to their strengths rather than be something they’re not in pressure defensive ends.

Linebacker play has been really solid for the most part.  Having talent and experience in Alaka and Dodson is nice with them leading the way.  Anthony Hines showed some promise against ULaLa so maybe he keeps developing.  It looks like Larry Pryor is going to play that Safety/Linebacker position Chavis likes and looked tremendous against UCLA and ULaLa.  He’s probably been the biggest surprise so far.  Maybe he’s playing the true strong safety position as I haven’t been paying attention to where he lines up but I know the dude is making plays on the field.

Losing Donavan Wilson was big especially with the way Pryor has been playing as having Watts, Wilson, and Pryor would be pretty damn devastating.  Capers-Smith has stepped in for Wilson it appears and hasn’t been horrible other than letting the interception go through his hands at UCLA but we won’t talk about that.  Armani Watts has been Armani Watts.  He’s going to play on Sundays.  The dude loves to play football and knows where the ball is going.

Our corners of Priest Willis and Myles Jones have looked pretty good.  Similar to Pryor I haven’t counted specifically who’s lining up where on each play.  I just think those two guys have looked the best in coverage with Charles Oliver doing okay.  They’re not perfect but they’ve been on the good side of coverage a lot more than they haven’t.  Myles Jones is a true freshman and showing lots of promise.  Nick Harvey may never see the field again and I’m not sure that’s a bad thing.

All in all this defense has looked better than I thought they would.  I expected a fall off like from 2012 to 2013 and that hasn’t happened yet.  We also haven’t seen this defense against SEC teams but we’re about to see that.  In my mind the jury is still out on Chavis as he has some brain farts but in my mind he has this defense playing above talent and my expectations.  Not perfect but this looks like a decent enough unit right now.

Special Teams:

I think our Special Teams has really been below average.  They’re not terrible but they do little things here and there that make me wonder how focused they really are on Special Teams as opposed to just an afterthought.  I think there’s been at least 2 kick offs out of bounds.  One is excusable depending on situation but at least 2 in 3 games boggles my mind.  I think it’s actually been 3 which makes it even worse.  It tells me teams are looking for it and if they see the angle is steep then let it go out of bounds.  Heady play by opponent’s special teams on our lack of execution.  I’m not even sure why we’re doing it if we can’t execute it.

Tripucka has done an excellent job with long punts and pinning punts.  He’s definitely the bright spot on special teams.  LaCamera has been pretty solid with 5-7.  Ironically enough had he been healthy enough to kick the final field goal attempt against UCLA we might have won but that’s the breaks.

The worst thing I’ve seen on special teams was the called fake field goal against ULaLa.  I don’t like exposing wrinkles against “inferior” opponents.  Every kick block team is coached to look for fakes.  Or at least they should be.  I don’t like putting that stuff on film when it’s not needed.  Even worse we couldn’t even execute it against ULaLa.  That was terrible.

I have faith in the individuals of Kirk, Tripucka, and LaCamera but as a whole unit I don’t see the Special Teams doing anything special to win games but maybe I’ll be wrong.


We’re about to find out what’s going on with this team starting this Saturday as we enter SEC play.  Based on what I’ve seen in our games and our opponent’s games I think we beat Arkansas and South Carolina and then lose to Alabama and Florida although Florida is VERY beatable.  For right now though I’m going to put it as a loss as I think the Florida defense will shut our offense down and they’ll win with defense and special teams while our defense holds their offense to a couple of field goals.  It’ll be an ugly offensive game for sure.  If we split those games that will put us at 4-3 with remaining SEC games against Miss St, Auburn, Ole Miss, and LSU.  We’ll have a gimme with New Mexico which is 5 wins so Sumlin would need to do better than split those final four SEC games to potentially save his job.  Sweeping those would save his job and 3-1 might save it depending on how they look.  I’ll leave my prediction at 7-5 for now but let’s worry about Arkansas first.



Although Arkansas has played us close since going back to JerryWorld (yes, even last year was close until mid-way through the 3rd) I think we win again this year for the following reasons:

  • Arkie looked TERRIBLE at home against a solid but not great TCU team. I mean they looked bad.
  • Bret Bielema is a bigger moron than Kevin Sumlin at game planning and in game coaching.
  • Arkansas is a worse team than last year.
  • Our defense has looked good for the most part.
  • Mond’s passing gives me hope we can keep Arkie from solely focusing on our running game.
  • Having played at 11:00 a.m. last week will help A&M.

In my mind unless we come out totally unprepared Austin Allen will have to channel his inner Josh Rosen to beat us completing passes like crazy over the middle and hitting his running backs flaring out of the backfield.  Austin Allen is a damn fine quarterback but I don’t think he has the offensive line and skill position guys to score a lot of points on our defense like Rosen.  At least the defense I’ve seen this season.

If I’m Bielema I use the entire bye week going back and watching film of A&M since the Tennessee game and installing offensive plays that worked against us.  That’s basically using the middle of the field  in the passing game as well as using running backs out of the backfield to take advantage of our aggressiveness.  You can bust those for big yards if you have the patience to set them up.  Instead though, I think Bielema will run his traditional offense of wanting to establish the run to set up the pass and it won’t be effective.  We’ll have more talent on defense than they have on offense and we’ll be prepared for it.  At least that’s the way I see it on that side of the ball.

On offense I think Mazzone’s traditional read based offense will be fine as we have more talent on offense than they do on defense.  If I’m Arkansas I definitely come out looking to stop the run and make Mond pass to see if the second half of last week’s game was a fluke.  If Mond can pass we’ll win this game walking away I think.  If Mond can pass they’ll have to adjust to defend the pass which will open up our running game or they’ll choose to dare Mond to continue to pass which he’ll do.  If Mond can’t pass then A&M could be in trouble but I think Mond has made a quick adjustment to the college game.  I think he’ll be fine against defenses where A&M has more talent on offense.  I definitely think Arkie’s defense is worse than last year’s defense.

I think we’ll see A&M up at half like 17-10 and I think the final score will be 30-16 in favor of the Aggies.  If that happens it’ll look great on the scoreboard but I’m not sure how much that will tell us because I do think Arkie is that bad.  If we do lose to Arkie look out as we could go 0-4 against Arkie, SoCar, Bama, and Florida.  If that happens I don’t think Sumlin will survive the bye week but I don’t see that happening.  I think he beats Arkie this weekend making us wait a few weeks longer to figure out his true fate.

I believe it’s his Farewell Tour but you never know for sure until the Fat Lady comes out on stage.


When Aggie Football Was Great

As the Founder, President, and main client of the Make Aggie Football Great Again Movement I often get asked when Aggie Football was ever great.  Obviously it was great in 1939 when the Aggies won their only official National Championship.  In addition there was the 1956 team that went 9-0-1 and finished 5th in the AP poll, the 1976 team that went 10-2 and finished 7th in the AP poll, and of course in recent memory the 2012 team that went 11-2 finishing 5th in the AP poll.  Those are four isolated seasons where one was definitely great and three others that were really good bordering on great.

For me there was a decade of Aggie Football in recent memory that was borderline great that I think Aggie Football can get back to with the right head coach.  College football is cyclical but there’s a decade of Aggie Football that should the standard by which Aggie Football is judged.  That decade is from 1985 to 1995.  20-30 years ago seems like a distant memory now but it should be a reminder of what’s possible.

In those 11 seasons Aggie Football finished outside of the Top 20 only once.  They finished in the Top 10 in five of those seasons.  They finished with 10 wins in six of those seasons in a period when only 11 games where the norm as opposed to the 12 games that are played now.  There were some 12 game seasons back then but the majority of those seasons were 11 game seasons so 10 wins is a big milestone.  There were three 9 win seasons and only one season of 8 wins and one season of 7 wins.  That’s pretty damn impressive from a win standpoint.  That’s a combined record of 104-27-2 for those 11 seasons for a winning percentage of .782.  That is an outstanding winning percentage over a decade.

Here’s a chart that summarizes each season:

There’s a lot to digest but there’s no doubt that’s a decade of REALLY good football bordering on great.  Win one national championship in there and that’s absolutely a great decade of football.  There were legitimate chances to win it all in 1985, 1992, and 1994.

1985 was a lot like the 2012 season where they opened up with a tough loss to a ranked Alabama team on the road, lost to a ranked Baylor team in the middle of the season, and then got hot and just rolled everyone they played absolutely thrashing their final three opponents in TCU, Texas, and Auburn that included Heisman Trophy winner Bo Jackson in the Cotton Bowl.  Had they not lost one of those early season losses they might have had an outside chance to get Penn St to the Cotton Bowl instead of OU getting them in the Orange Bowl which is how OU won the national championship that year.  Early season losses set this team back just like in 2012.  There’s no doubt though at the end of the season this was one of the best teams in the country.

1992 was an undefeated regular season but like the modern day Big 12, Texas A&M was playing in a wretched Southwest Conference.  So wretched there wasn’t one team in the Southwest Conference that was ranked when they played.  A&M’s only win over a ranked opponent was to open the season against Stanford who was ranked 20th at the time.  At the same time both Alabama and Miami went undefeated beating more ranked opponents than A&M so Miami went to the Sugar Bowl instead of the Cotton Bowl.  Had Bama lost a game that season there’s an outside chance Miami and A&M would have matched up in the Cotton Bowl for the national championship but that’s still a stretch as Miami might have played Florida State in a re-match.  The Southwest Conference did A&M no favors that season because the teams were crap much like what top Big 12 teams face today.  Of course A&M losing to Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl makes talk of a national championship that season moot but that was a damn good Notre Dame team.  However, A&M didn’t help itself for that game having to suspend Greg Hill for receiving improper benefits.  As it was A&M belonged in the conversation of Alabama, Miami, Florida State, and Notre Dame teams that were just loaded with talent.  That was a great team.  Probably the greatest of that decade for Aggie Football.

The 1994 team technically went undefeated but thanks to Greg Hill not going to his cush job for Warren Gilbert at a Dallas apartment complex they were on NCAA probation.  A&M was banned both from the post season and television that year.  A&M had no chance to win a national championship that season but if Greg Hill goes to his job or doesn’t take the money this potentially could have been a championship team.  The reality is this team wasn’t really all that close as even if they weren’t on probation and hadn’t tied SMU in one of the worst games I’ve ever witnessed as an Aggie fan, an undefeated Texas A&M likely wouldn’t have climbed over undefeated Nebraska and Penn St who had better regular season opponents and impressive bowl victories to remain undefeated.  Playing in the Southwest Conference was just not going to position a team for a National Championship unless a bunch of other teams lost in their better conferences.  That didn’t happen in 1994 but if A&M goes undefeated in 1992 and isn’t on probation it’s not a total stretch to think this team is playing for a national championship assuming they beat SMU that season.

While the Southwest Conference was pretty bad for the most part the statistic that stands out to me during that decade is the record at Kyle Field.  63-5-1 is just flat out amazing.  That’s partially where the mystique of Kyle Field came from in recent memory.  In 11 seasons Texas A&M only lost FIVE games at Kyle Field.  FIVE games in 11 seasons.  That’s unreal.  In 7 seasons Texas A&M never lost a game at home.  There was one tie which is kind of losing but it’s not a loss so we won’t count it that way.  Only one season did A&M lose 2 games and that was easily the worst team of that decade.  A&M never lost more than 1 game at Kyle in any other season and had a five year run where a fan at Kyle Field never saw a loss with just one tie.  That is flat out amazing at defending Kyle Field.  That my friends is absolutely great Aggie Football at home.  I don’t care how bad the Southwest Conference was as there were some big wins over non conference opponents and some solid Southwest Conference teams along the way.  Five losses in 11 seasons.  That’s amazing.

I won’t classify that entire decade as truly great because of the struggle in bowl games and key road losses but it’s not far from it and it’s what Aggie Football expectations should be.  With A&M’s resources there’s no reason why we can’t return to a decade of Aggie football like this and make it even better.  Make the right hire and we can get back there.

The most interesting part of this decade is a conversation I had with Dr. Loftin in 2010 after Nebraska and Colorado announced they were leaving for the Pac 12 and we had flirted with the SEC but didn’t pull the trigger.  This was prior to the Longhorn Network being announced.  Dr. Loftin told me the support for going to the SEC wasn’t as large as it seemed.  He said it was actually divided more to staying as there was a silent majority that was fearful of the SEC.  He told me he had basically divided support for the SEC between two major groups.  One was the recent graduates who were enamored with the SEC because of all the publicity it was getting at the time and the other was those Aggies that had graduated during this decade of Aggie Football and more specifically those that had been in school when Jackie was coach.  Those Aggies didn’t fear the SEC like those that didn’t attend school during that decade.

Dr. Loftin didn’t say this but there’s no doubt those Aggies during that period remember dominating football teams and most importantly dominating Kyle Field.  They weren’t scared at all of the SEC as they know Aggie football can compete at the highest level with the right coach.  This decade of Aggie Football should be the minimum standard of expectations going forward.  If those results aren’t being achieved then we need to be doing a serious study of what’s going wrong and what change is needed.  Shift the mindset that this decade is what Aggie Football should be.  We’re not there from a mental standpoint.  We really aren’t.

If you didn’t experience that decade as a student or fan you don’t know what you’re missing out on.  Kyle Field rocked every game and the biggest reason was the Wrecking Crew.  Defense was the staple of that decade and a coach needs to focus on bringing the Wrecking Crew mentality back.  It won’t be easy in this new era of high powered offenses but A&M needs a head coach that makes recruiting and preparing defensive players to thrash opponents a top priority.  Easier said than done but offense just wins games and the Wrecking Crew can win championships.  If a coach doesn’t understand the importance of bringing the Wrecking Crew back then we stand no chance of ever being great again.

There is no doubt with the right mindset a head coach can absolutely Make Aggie Football Great Again.  There’s a decade that says it’s possible.


2017 Aggie Spring Practice Review

Before I get going on my “analysis” of A&M’s Spring Practice I want to be clear that I will never cheer against Texas A&M and I’m not rooting for Kevin Sumlin to fail.  Not at all.  I hope Sumlin proves me wrong in what I’m about to write but I’m trying to look at this objectively.  We’ve had 5 years of Kevin Sumlin and nothing that I’ve seen says this is the year he finally flips the switch.  I’m just being realistic here.

There’s nothing that can come out of Spring Practice/Games that should get anyone excited.  Its practice and nothing more.  Every program in the country does it.  All it’s really good for is getting the younger guys some reps and for a coaching staff to maybe determine who might start where heading into the summer.  It’s a practice where players are going up against each other and not real competition.  It’s good to get those reps in but nothing at all matters until real bullets start flying on Labor Day weekend in California.  That game is the only thing that matters for now so until that happens there’s no need to get worked up over practice reports.  Practice matters and means a ton but the ultimate evaluation comes in the form of wins and losses.  Until live bullets start flying in September there’s no reason to get worked up over anything you see or read related to spring practice.

The absolute best thing that can come out of a spring practice is naming your starting quarterback if there’s any question.  That’s what happened last year with Trevor Knight but Sumlin didn’t name a starting quarterback this year.  That’s not a good thing because it means the trio of Hubenak, Starkel, and Mond didn’t separate themselves.  In the Sumlin era Trevor Knight is the unquestionable #2 quarterback when judged solely by wins and losses behind Johnny Manziel.  It’s not even close.  No other quarterback even comes close to a season of work when it comes to wins and losses to be the #2 quarterback behind Johnny.  I say that because I think we’re really going to miss Trevor.  As wildly inconsistent as he was as a passer, he was a consistent winner.  He had control of the team and ran Mazzone’s offense pretty damn well.  If he didn’t transfer in from OU last season would have been a DISASTER and Sumlin wouldn’t be our coach.


So here we sit with a trio of quarterbacks that no one can figure out who’s going to start including the coaching staff.  There’s no Trevor Knight here.  Let’s not forget we’re headed into Year 6 of Sumlin’s tenure and have no clear quarterback.  We could be in Kyle Allen’s senior season, Kyler Murray’s third season, or something else but we sit here wondering who is going to be taking snaps because Sumlin has botched his handling of quarterbacks since Johnny.  He flat out has.  This is all on him.

Under center against UCLA we will have a quarterback who’s never won a start and some that haven’t even taken a snap.  Hubenak started in some big games against Louisville, Ole Miss, and LSU and didn’t win any of them.  I think Jake Hubenak is a fine Aggie but when it comes to production measured by wins his body of work doesn’t look good at all.  He couldn’t bring A&M back against Mississippi State either.  If it’s not Hubenak then it’s going to be a guy who’s never taken a snap in a college game in redshirt freshman Nick Starkel or true freshman Kellen Mond.  We’re going to have a guy under center who has NEVER won a game at the college level against another Power 5 conference team.  None of these guys are Johnny Manziel so get that out of your head.

I think it’s either going to be Mond or Starkel but what bothers me about those two is they’re both completely different quarterbacks.  Starkel is a classic pocket guy and Mond is a dual threat guy.  I kind of wish Sumlin had named Starkel the starter coming out of spring practice as it would give the players and staff some idea of what type of offense they’ll be running.  As it stands we’ll go into summer camp with no clue if we’re going to have a pocket or running quarterback.  A redshirt freshman or a true freshman.  I would have given the nod to Starkel and told him it was his job to loose.  It doesn’t mean you hurt Mond’s development as you can have some plays for him but I think the sooner you establish your starting quarterback the better off your team is.  Just like Trevor Knight last year.

I just don’t how this team does better than last year record wise when Trevor Knight is clear head and shoulders above anyone on the roster.  I think Mond could be really solid at some point down the road but Kevin Sumlin should only be looking at 2017 right now and what’s best to get more than 8 wins.  He might survive an 8 win season depending on how it goes but there’s no way in hell he survives a 7 win season.  No way at all.  He’ll only survive an 8 win season if we beat LSU with Mond under center showing there’s some progress but good luck doing that in Baton Rouge this season.

Pass Rush:

In addition to not having a quarterback we also don’t have a pass rush.  I mean none.  We lost our two best defensive ends to the draft and the guys we have behind them showed virtually no promise last season.  We had a massive drop off in defensive end play when Myles Garrett wasn’t on the field.  So much so that South Carolina and Mississippi State ran their QBs at Garret’s replacement on their first offensive play of the game and ripped off 75 yard touchdown runs.  We’re not going to have any pass rush to speak off and that’s going to stress our already weak cornerback situation I believe.  I really think our defense is going to fall off big time next season with the loss of Garrett and Hall.

We finally get some depth and talent in our linebacking corps but there’s no Von Miller to bring pressure off the edge.  Speaking of Von Miller let’s think back to the season after we lost Von and what happened.  We went from 9-3 to 6-6 and Mike Sherman got fired.  Our defense couldn’t hold a lead at all partially because we lost our ability to bring a pass rush.  I just don’t know how a defense that’s not already loaded with talent gets better when you lose a guy that is the #1 or #2 pick in the draft.  I just don’t know how that’s possible.  I hope I’m wrong but the talent and depth of the defense isn’t there to be better than last year’s defense with the loss of a guy like Garrett as well as Hall.  A lot like in 2013 when the defense lost all its upperclassmen leaders.

We lost our two best players from last year’s team in Trevor Knight and Myles Garrett and we’re supposed to be better when their replacements appear to be significant drop offs?  Remember when people were saying Caleb Russell was going to be a fine replacement for Von Miller?  How did that turn out?  Kevin Sumlin is going to have to flat out pull a rabbit out of his hat to equal the 8 wins from last season.   I don’t know how 8 wins is possible much less 9 or more.  I really don’t.  I hope I’m wrong but I don’t know how we’re better.

Receiving Corps:

While it’s easy to point out the likely drop in production of our quarterback and defensive ends there’s another group that I think could suffer but hardly ever gets talked about.  That group is our wide receiving corps.  Most people seem to think we have the talent to re-load and go but I’m not totally sold on that.  I don’t think we fully understand what the loss of Josh Reynolds will mean to our passing game.  While he’s not exactly Mike Evans he’s not too far from him in terms of production.  Christian Kirk is an outstanding receiver but outside of Kirk I don’t see one guy on this roster that will come close to matching Josh Reynold’s production.  Jhamon Ausbon appears to have the talent and supposedly had an excellent spring but he’ll still be a true freshman and they tend to hit a wall.  I don’t think he’ll be good enough to replace Reynolds for 12 games this season.  Reynolds is kind of like Knight in that he’s CLEARLY the second best receiver as far as production in the Sumlin era.  Kirk is good but Reynolds got the job done better.  Now he’s gone and nobody is talking about his loss because there’s this weird assumption he’s easily replaced and I just don’t see it.

I know everyone seems to be glad RSJ moved on as he was wildly inconsistent and never lived up to his talent but he wasn’t terrible.  He was a defensive mis-match and along the way he made some solid catches.  He dropped some balls he should have caught and he’s replaceable but I’m not sure there’s anyone on the roster that’s a sure upgrade.  There’s talk of Damion Ratley starting at receiver.  If you think RSJ dropped passes, Ratley makes RSJ look like he’s got glue for hands.  If Damion Ratley starts for us it’s not a good sign for our receiving corps at all.  I can’t believe Ratley is even in the running to start at receiver but he is.  I’m not talking about Kirk Merritt until his “jock itch” situation gets taken care of because I’m not sure he should be practicing with the team right now.  It’s a little Baylor esque in my mind and I don’t like that at all.

There’s some talent and depth on the roster at the receiving position but it just seems odd everybody assumes the receiving corps won’t miss a beat with the loss of Reynolds for sure and even RSJ.  Christian Kirk while extremely talented has not shown he can carry a team and some of that might be on Noel Mazzone.  However, in the receiving game I think defenses will make sure to take away any threat from Christian Kirk and see if the other receivers can beat them.  In my mind this unit is going to be worse than last year.

Strength and Conditioning:

Now to my favorite move ever by Kevin Sumlin.  The firing of Larry Jackson aka Black Death.  I have no allegiance to Larry Jackson but I giggle every time I hear the late season collapses being blamed at the hands of our strength and conditioning coach.  Four flipping seasons in a row we failed to win games in November and Kevin Sumlin decides his strength and conditioning coach was to blame.  Get out of here.  I don’t mind a change to the staff to shake things up but to blame FOUR SEASONS of losing November games on the strength and conditioning coach is maddening.

Our guys weren’t gassed to the point they couldn’t get off the ground and they weren’t suffering from muscle atrophy where they were just weaker and got pushed around.  That wasn’t the case at all.  In fact I remember reading things last season of how Coach Jackson had changed things to be more “SEC Like”.  Coaching lost to Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and LSU last season.  It wasn’t ANYTHING related to strength and conditioning.  Blaming those losses on lack of strength and conditioning is some Coach Fran bullshit right there.

The reality of in season football is strength and conditioning isn’t all that important beyond a maintain level.  Any strength and conditioning coach can do that as it’s mainly just making sure guys are doing some running post practice and doing some lifting to maintain what they have.  You’re not building strength and conditioning during the season.  As long as Larry Jackson didn’t cut gassers and lifting during the season he ain’t to blame.  And if Larry Jackson did cut gassers and lifting then Kevin Sumlin should have fired him on the spot and told his squad to line up for gassers and get their ass in the weight room and do some lifting.  It really is that simple.

All of this talk of how different the players look this spring cracks me up.  Our new strength and conditioning coach hasn’t been on the job for even 4 months.  If he’s really having an effect where already elite level athletes look totally different then he needs to get an infomercial or a website because he’s found the secret to working out.  He could make a shit load more money selling his system to the general public than wasting it on 100 players at Texas A&M.  Seriously.  If it’s true this guy has changed the physique and lungs of our athletes in four months then Sumlin should be fired right now for keeping Larry Jackson around as long as he did.

It’s all a big ruse by Sumlin to deflect more blame from himself while he pretends to be an elite level coach by being condescending to anyone that questions the reality of where this program is.  At the end of the day it’s about football coaching and technique.  If you have superior coaching and athletes your strength and conditioning program could consist solely of gassers, running stands, swinging sledgehammers, and flipping tires.  I’m dead serious.  Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney didn’t get to the National Championship the last two years because they have superior strength and conditioning coaches.  In fact I bet Nick Saban would still beat Sumlin if Saban hired Larry Jackson as his strength and conditioning coach.  Just Sumlin re-arranging his staff and blaming someone else because he can’t re-arrange or blame himself thanks to his big contract.  Classic clueless management.

Units That Will Be Better:

Since I’m bagging on units that I think will be worse I do think there’s some units that will be better.  I think it starts with our offensive line.  We lose our tackles but I think we’ll be fine with their replacements.  Neither of those guys are getting drafted super high and doesn’t look like they’re going to play tackle at the next level so I think they’re replaceable.  It’s not like we‘re losing someone named Joeckel, Matthews, Ogbuehi, or even Ifedi.  There will be some shuffling of positions along the line it seems but I think we’ll settle on 5 guys that will be better than last year mainly because we had a lot of youth along the interior and those guys should be better this season.

I think we’ll be better at the running back position as well.  We were pretty good last year but I think Keith Ford and Tray Williams will be better just having a full season under their belt.  Hopefully we rely more on the run this year as boring as it might be.  This is where I wish we had our starting quarterback already named so we would have some idea of what kind of offense we’d be running.  With Starkel we’d have a more pro style/pocket offense and with Mond it would be more zone read.  At least that’s what I’d assume.  It would be nice to spend the entire off season knowing which way we should be working.  If Mazzone plans on running the same offense with either QB we’re hosed.  For our running backs I’d love for them to be able to spend the off season knowing if they’re going to be used in more direct hand offs or part of a zone read type offense.  It’s not that big of a deal but I think it would help.

I also think our linebacking corps will be better.  Dodson should be better and the addition of Hines and Marchiol add some needed talent and depth.  They’re likely too young to have a major impact this season but they’ll add some talent and depth that we haven’t had in a while which will be an improvement.  Assuming this unit stays healthy and improves with time it’ll be much better than last year’s unit.  We will desperately need an improved linebacking corps since we won’t have any pass rush to speak of.

I think our secondary will be about the same as last year.  Losing Justin Evans will hurt but as long as we have Armani and Donovan Wilson we still have major talent.  Hopefully cornerback will be better as it can’t get much worse even though there’s talk Nick Harvey might be out for the season.  Either way I don’t see a major drop off or improvement for our secondary as it’ll be much like last year I believe.

Bottom Line for 2017 and Sumlin:

With all of that being said I don’t see how Sumlin wins 8 games next year.  The schedule is less favorable than last season.  We lose our best offensive player in Trevor Knight and defensive player in Myles Garrett.  We won 8 games last year losing the last 4 against major conference opponents.  We got beat by Kansas State in a bowl game.  Kansas State in a bowl game in Houston.  Think about that.  Kevin Sumlin in his fifth year got beat by 115 year old Bill Snyder in a bowl game filled with Aggies everywhere when he had almost a month to prepare.  You think a new strength and conditioning coach is going to cure that and win at least 8 games again?  I hope Sumlin proves me wrong but his data set is way too big for me to think otherwise.  Plain and simple this team will be worse from a roster standpoint coupled with a tougher schedule than last year.  I don’t know how 8 wins is even possible looking at it objectively but we shall see.  Sumlin has 12 games to prove everyone wrong that he’s figured it out.

I’ll do a season preview in the next couple of months along with a list of potential new coaches after that.  I don’t see 2017 being a very good season for Aggie football and I hope the higher ups are already doing their due diligence for if/when a change at the top spot is needed.  Sadly I think this is the season where all of the shine for Kevin Sumlin comes off and the 2012 season seems like a distant memory.

I’ll be in the stands for every Aggie home game along with UCLA and Florida wearing my “Make Aggie Football Great Again” hat hoping for the moment it comes to fruition.